Digital Sportspage Blog

EA responded to Kotaku regarding the possible cancellation of College Hoops 2K9. David Tinson, director of EA Sports public relations, said:

2k and CLC are in the best position to comment on College Hoops.

EA is in the middle of a long-term license with the CLC and we expect to stay in the college basketball category.

Some have suggested that part of the reason for 2K Sports leaving negotiations is because sales of the College Hoops series have been low. However, is that really the case? Well, I unfortunately don’t have access to NPD figures…but I do have access to data from vgchartz.com. (NOTE: I am aware that these figures are not the most reliable, so consider these figures as estimates.)

According to vgchartz.com, there has been a minor decline in sales of College Hoops 2K8 on next gen systems, with approximately 113,000 sales of College Hoops 2K8, and 130,000 sales of College Hoops 2K7 at the same point in time (eight weeks after release). This is a minor (13%) decrease. However, College Hoops 2K8 outsold March Madness 08 at the same point (five weeks after release) on next gen systems (96,000 to 87,000). Furthermore, sales of College Hoops 2K8 have dwarfed the sales of another licensed 2K product, NHL 2K8 (113,000 to 61,000 after eight weeks).

Assuming these numbers are close to correct, it doesn’t seem like recent sales have been poor enough to tank a long running basketball series. Even though sales of College Hoops 2K8 may be slower than last year, these sales are still higher than the competition (March Madness 08), and much better than another licensed title in the 2K Sports stable (NHL 2K8).

So then why would 2K Sports walk away from the negotiation table? David Tinson’s remarks were informative in letting us know that March Madness is in the middle of a long-term contract with the CLC. Adding this information, this leaves three possibilities:

1) EA and/or the CLC were looking to renegotiate their agreement as an exclusive license, or renegotiated their contract at a higher price than previously. Tinson’s comments do not address these possibilities, and it would be consistent with the initial Kotaku rumors.

This is possible, but this just feels unlikely. Why would 2K Sports back away from the negotiation table if there is no exclusive deal? And why would EA negotiate to pay more for their license?

2) The NCAA basketball license costs remained the same, and 2K Sports decided to not pay because of poor sales or other financial difficulties.

This also seems unlikely, given what was discussed earlier in the post and previously. This only seems likely if the College Hoops franchise has been consistently losing money over the last few years. And this seems unlikely given its sales record compared to March Madness and the NHL 2K series.

3) The CLC increased the price of the NCAA basketball license to a level that 2K Sports can not or will not pay.

To me, this is still the most likely scenario. If so, this brings up a lot of questions. Why would the CLC increase the price of the NCAA basketball license to something that 2K Sports will not pay? If there have been no renegotiations of the March Madness license, then the CLC gets nothing from a hard negotiation stance. Could this be public brinksmanship by 2K Sports? Are they sending the message to the CLC that they can walk away from the negotiation table, hoping to get a better deal? Is the cost of the College Hoops license the same as the March Madness license?

So far, there are still a lot of questions and not a lot of answers. Hopefully the CLC will comment and help clarify the issue.